Impact of Socio-Economic and Demographic Variables on Human Fertility Behaviour­-A Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore the possibility of further fertility decline in Bangladesh, with special attention to the role that might be played by improvements in socio-economic and demographic variables. In particular, researcher has attempted to estimate that after how long, and under what conditions, fertility rate should be taken for Bangladesh to reach replacement­level fertility (2.1 children per woman). The medium-variant scenario of the United Nations projection indicates that Bangladesh will achieve replacement-level fertility around 2025-2030 (United Nations, 1999, 2001 ). Researcher assess whether the analysis yields a similar conclusion. The rapid decline of fertility, from over 6.5 births per woman to 3.3 births, in the last two decades in Bangladesh is, indeed, a historic record in demographic transition. The country is poor and has remained traditional and conservative. Although the extent and rapidity of the decrease in fertility have been very impressive by international standards, continued fertility decline is desirable, as population crowding, environmental deterioration, massive migration from rural areas to unplanned urban settings, and rapid depletion of resources are becoming acute. However, recent statistics suggest that, despite a continuing increase in contraceptive use, the fertility decline in Bangladesh has been stalled. The present study covers a period of about 30 years, from 1975 to 2004. The study is based on the analysis of secondary data sources mainly obtained from 1993-1994, 1996-1997, 1999-2000 and 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) and 1975 and 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Surveys (BFSs). The time series data has been taken from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) from 1985 to 2005, although the number of time series data is small, the annual data of Bangladesh for population studies are limited. In addition, data from the 1981, 1986 and 1991 Bangladesh Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPSs) are also utilized. The samples of these surveys are nationally representative in scope and contain socio-economic and demographic information of individuals. Analyzing these data researcher has tried to focus on the past, present and future fertility situation of Bangladesh in connection with socio-economic and demographic variables based on several multivariate statistical analyses namely, logistic regression model, path model, Bongaarts' proximate determinants of fertility model and time series. It is found from the logistic regression model that the age at marriage, educational level, region, mass media, contraceptive method and child mortality are most influential variables on human fertility behaviour. It suggests that socio­economic development policies as educational level, region, mass media and demographic indicators as age at first marriage, contraceptive method and child mortality giving special emphasis may produce significant desired effects with regard to fertility control in the national level of Bangladesh. The path analysis reveals that there are regional variations in fertility among the six administration divisions of Bangladesh due to some particular socio-economic and demographic variables. It demonstrates while one of the strategies to reduce fertility should be bringing down the desired family size, other strategies to narrow the gap of the regional variations should include efforts to increase education for female to reduce the preference for male children and to lower infant and child mortality, as well as to promote the effective use of contraceptives. Without a rapid improvement of these factors, it would be difficult to achieve replacement level fertility in near future. Bongaarts' model is applied to estimate the fertility inhibiting effect of four important proximate determinants: marriage, contraception, abortion and lactational infecundability. The model clearly indicates that there is a downward trend in all the proximate indices. Data on induced abortion are not available. So, its effect on the model is about to be immeasurable. Abortion is a sensitive issue in Bangladesh, and many women who have an abortion do not disclose this to others, particularly to outsiders. This makes the situation extremely difficult to get a clear picture of abortion from survey data in this country. Bongaarts' model indicates marriage variable made significant contributions to the overall fertility reduction. Contraceptive use has the highest impact on the total reduction of fertility which may be attributed to the increasing use of contraception from 7% in 1975 to 48.5% in 2004. The average estimated effect of lactational infecundability plays an important role in reducing fertility in Bangladesh. The analysis also shows that a downward effect on fertility at young ages caused by rising age at marriage has been balanced by an upwards effect at older ages caused by decreasing widowhood and divorced. Researcher suggests from the Bongaarts' model that the governmental policies can concentrate on effectively and efficiently increasing contraceptive utilization and effectiveness, on encouraging breastfeeding and on rising the age of marriage. One of the most interesting parts of this study that the researcher has developed a time series model to estimate after how long and under what conditions Bangladesh will achieve the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children per woman). Research has compared the time frame to reach the replacement level of fertility with the medium-variant scenario of the United Nations projection that Bangladesh will achieve replacement level of fertility around 2025-30 (UN, 1999, 2001 ). The research has found the similar result to reach the fertility rate of Bangladesh at the replacement level as the United Nations target year. Researcher has suggested that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Bangladesh will reach at the replacement level within the desired time period around 2025-2030 and to do so the government shall have to take necessary action- to increase mean age at marriage of female to be 20.3 years; to increase labor force participation of female to be 43.5%; and to decrease infant mortality rate per 1000 live births at 35.6. Lastly, it is shown from the study that the fertility rate has remained almost same in the national level of Bangladesh for a long time. But it is also found from the study that fertility rate has reached near to the replacement level in the few divisions of Bangladesh. It is really a matter of hope for us. Being greatly encouraged. Researcher would like to suggest that the regional key measures, responsible for achieving the replacement level of fertility rate must be found out, analyzed and researched and finally applied in other divisions of the country. By doing these, we can reach to our goal to the replacement level of fertility