Demography of Aging : Lessons from Bangladesh

Abstract

The aging of population is thought to be the outcome of interplay between fertility and mortality. So is the case with Bangladesh. In the face of socio-economic transformations that are taking place in Bangladesh, it is assumed that the demographic transition what has been underway in the country in recent years affects the upper age spectrum of the population and has resulted in increase of the older persons of age 60 and over. However, the demographic consequences of changing population age structure and the growing number of older persons are yet to fully understood. The present study is an attempt to explore the causes and consequences of population aging in Bangladesh. The aim of the study is to explore the current situation and future trend of population aging under the changing condition of demographic variables, specifically, fertility and mortality. The objectives of the study are: ■ to look at the change in the level and pattern of fertility and mortality and their effect on the age structure of the population, ■ to examine the impact of undergoing demographic transition on aging of population, ■ to investigate the current age-sex structure of the aged population and to asses future trend under various demographic alternatives and ■ to understand the consequences of population aging in the country. The study has been based on secondary sources of data. The secondary data have been taken from different published and unpublished sources. These are Vital Registration, Population Census, Demographic Survey of East Pakistan, Population Growth Estimation Experiment, National Impact Survey, Bangladesh Retrospective Survey on Fertility and Mortality, Bangladesh Fertility Survey, Bangladesh Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, Demographic Surveillance System and some others. Besides these sources, data are also taken from United Nations publications. The study has been carried out on the basis of such demographic indicators as crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, median age, age and sex composition, marital status, life expectancy, and so on. The study has analyzed the demographic transition caused by reduction in fertility and mortality and also identify the factors affecting the aged population. To estimate and project the aged population, the models viz. Exponential growth model, Modified exponential growth model, Geometric model, Makeham's model and Logistic model have been used. The study has estimated and projected mid-year female population of Bangladesh by age group during 1991-2021 and through applying Frejka's component method in Leslie matrix form. Finally, Cohort component method has been used to estimate and project the mid-year total population of Bangladesh by age group. The expected trend in aging of population of Bangladesh reveals a clear increasing level in aging population both in case of males and females. As regards age structure it is found that the elderly population( 60+) has increased by 1 percent during 1911 to 1991. The projected figure of elderly population in Bangladesh shows that the size of the elderly population is expected to increase from nearly 6.02 million in 1996 to 7.78 million in 2006. It is also evident that there is a consistent increase in the proportion of aged 60+ compared to the population in those of young and adult age groups. Thus older population of Bangladesh is going to increase remarkably between the next two decades from 2010 to 2030. The exponential growth rate of elderly population in Bangladesh is lower than the other Asian countries. With regard to demographic change the crude birth rate has reduced to as low as 25.6 percent in 1996 from 53.8 percent in 1901. The total fertility rate has also declined with narrow amplitude. It has reduced from 6.78 in 1961 to 3.41 in 1996. Comparison of crude birth rate with the proportion of aged population reveals an inverse relationship between the two. So is the case between the aged population and total fertility. With the decline of total fertility, the aged population would gradually increase. Crude death rate has also an uninterrupted declining trend over the period of the study. Reduction of mortality has however been the important factor in triggering off the rapid growth of population in Bangladesh. Again a considerable decline in infant mortality is noticed in the second half of the twentieth century. Infant mortality reduced to 67 deaths per 1000 live births in 1996 against 140 in 1960. As regards crude death rate and expectation of life at birth, there is a close relationship between the two variables. The average length of life has increased more than double in this century from 24 years in 1901 to 59 years in 1996. The relation of crude death rate with aged population reveals that about 77 percent variation in the proportion of aged population is explained by crude death rate. About 99 percent variation in such proportion is explained by expectation of life at birth. As regards to nuptiality, significant changes in marital composition and in the mean age at marriage are noticed. The mean age at marriage of females has increased to 20.1 years in 1996 as against 12.6 years in 1931 and for males to 27.8 years from 19.0 years during the same period. Both the factors are closely related to fertility thereby affect the aging of population. Estimate and projection of the aged population reveal that in next 20 years their number will exceed nearly one crore and in the mid of the next century the elderly( older persons) is expected to increase nearly 205 times than today. The aged population of Bangladesh will increase gradually up to 2021 and thereafter it will increase remarkably between 2021 to 2051 about 4.6 times by the end of 2051 from the figure of 1981. Thus, we have clear evidence that the aging of population that is taking place in the country can be accounted for the transition of both fertility and mortality i.e. the demographic transition vis-a-vis changes in the age structure. In view of growing number of elderly m Bangladesh, the aged population gradually emerges as a vulnerable group in our society. The well-being of the older person requires formulation of appropriate polices and programmes through a clear understanding of the problems, needs, and demands of this vulnerable group, their status and functions in the family and society, their living arrangement, support systems, economic activity, potentiality and so on. Population aging in Bangladesh is becoming a serious concern for the development agendas. The issue should be dealt with much care. The rapid rate of aging of population and the growing cohorts of older persons have particular implications for the development of the country including increasing economic dependency and rising incidence of care giving to older persons by the traditional social unit, the family. Maintenance of joint family system could be a policy option.