Potential Impact of Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise on Livelihood Security in Coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

A clear relationship between global warming and the risk of climate change induced sea level rise has already been identified in various studies around the globe. The effect of the event is destruction to human and economic development which includes livelihood insecurity. The consequences of sea level rise pose a serious threat to the natural resource based livelihood opportunities of low lying coastal communities. In addition to recurrent and rapid onset of different extreme events (i.e. flood, cyclone etc.) coastal zone has to confront with a range of creeping risks. Increasing rates of sea level rise caused by global warming are expected to lead to permanent inundation, drainage congestion, salinity intrusion and frequent storm surge inundation. Climate change induced sea level rise is a massive threat to all aspects of human development and achievement. Bangladesh being a low-lying delta coast is very much vulnerable to SLR and its associated events. Moreover, it is one of the most densely populated countries of the world where 28% of the population live in the coastal area. So it is imperative to know the impact of disaster of impending dangers earlier such as sea level rise for effective adaptation measures. The study has explored a number of fundamental aspects for example the potential impact of SLR in coastal Bangladesh, the thinking and perceptions of coastal people regarding the impact of SLR in their livelihood, the adaptation measures etc. The coastal region of Bangladesh is divided into three major regions as east, central and western coastal zone. The study was conducted based on both primary and secondary data. This empirical research has been conducted in six unions of three upazila of three districts of the coastal zone of Bangladesh. The study areas were selected by simple random sampling. A sample survey of 380 households was done. Respondents were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire during June-October 2016. Questionnaire survey was supplemented by focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Questionnaire was made based on various dimensions of climate awareness and consulting some much cited global literatures. To find out the potential impact of SLR on livelihood securities, different livelihood capital related questions of coastal people were included in the questionnaire. To find out exposed region of the study area a comparative analysis has been done among the different livelihood capitals. Respondents’ perception about the vulnerability (impact dimensions) of SLR and its associate events on their livelihood security are measured in a 5-point Likert scale. Questionnaire included 27 impact-responses to major categories of livelihood insecurity which revealed livelihood security perception of the respondents. Livelihood securities of coastal population is measured using various indicators in which results from regression analysis revealed food security of coastal zone is controlled by several predictors such as occupation of respondents, year of schooling of house wife, amount of land, age and different livelihood capitals. Research results also strongly revealed that a significant part of coastal populations will be SLR refugees by the year 2100 and this may eventually trigger up huge out migration and destroy livelihood security system of the coastal region. The major findings of the study revealed that agricultural livelihood, fish sector, housing and settlement, food security, water and sanitation, health care facilities are vulnerable segments to sea level rise impacts. The study also explored that people find some indigenous adaptation strategies to combat in sea level rise consequences, though some institutional efforts are found in strengthening adaptation mechanism in the study areas. Adaptation and coping strategies vary depending on the occupation. Respondents engaged in agriculture and allied occupations are in constant threat of climatic disastrous events. Moreover, Respondents identified wide range of measures for positive adaptation and most of such measures are related to minimization of both exposure and sensitivity, and maximization of adaptive capacity. In different situations of SLR adaptation strategies, responses were analyzed through multiple response analysis. Major strategies were found in agricultural management, fisheries management, salinity management, settlement management, land use management and non-agricultural activities management. Necessary adaptation policies and an action plan for effective implementation is immediately needed to face the crucial challenges to environment, food security and occupational security. Successful adaptation depends on the actions and capacities of local government institutions because local government plays a vital role in mediating access to scarce resources, providing basic services and ensuring appropriate protection from natural disasters. Finally, SLR is a phenomenon created by the industrially developed countries and Bangladesh is the worst victim of it. Therefore, the global community and multi-lateral and bi-lateral development agencies must come forward to support Bangladesh in formulating and implementing appropriate adaptation policies to combat this massive environmental threat to make resource-poor coastal communities of Bangladesh more resilient.