Study of Climate Variability and Agriculture Drought in Bangladesh

Abstract

The climate plays significant role in the agriculture of a country. Rainfall is the most important climate parameter affecting non-irrigated crop areas for Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh. Water deficits and excess water are the greatest constraints for rain fed rice yields in this region. The daily rainfall data for 30 years during the period 1981-2010 of the station Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh districts are considered in this study. This study also considered weekly rainfall for 5 mm and 10 mm. The daily data were reduced in the weekly form and the drought index has been calculated using the probability of Markov chain model and goodness of fit using chi-square test. Drought is temporary but complex feature of the climate system. Agriculture drought is mainly concerned with inadequacy of rainfall. Markov chain model have been used to evaluate probabilities of getting a sequence of wet-dry weeks over this region. An index best on the parameters of this model has been suggested for agriculture drought measurement in this region. The results indicate that the Rangpur, Faridpur and Mymensingh districts are as follows: For Drought Index of Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Rangpur District: the results indicate that the Rangpur region were found the mild drought in Annual, the occasionally drought in pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. For Drought Index Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Faridpur District: the Faridpur region were found the occasionally drought in Annual, pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. For Drought Index Rainfall 5 mm and 10 mm in Mymensingh District: the results indicate that the region were found the mild drought in Annual, the occasionally drought in pre-kharif and kharif season, and the chronic drought Proneness in Rabi season. This study will be constructive to agricultural planners and irrigation engineers to identifying there as where agricultural development should be focused as a long –term drought improvement strategy. The level of drought proneness helps the early detection of agricultural drought and the crop production that is useful for talking timely release and remedy measures and other decisions by several organization of Bangladesh. It will also contribute toward a better understanding of the climatology of drought in major monsoon region of the world.