Investigating the Trend and Impact of Some Variables on HYV Boro Rice Production in Northern Region of Bangladesh

Abstract

Boro rice is playing a significant role in the total rice production of Bangladesh. High yielding variety (HYV) Boro rice is grown enormously in the Northern region of Bangladesh. On the basis of per hector production, three HYV Boro rice producing districts have been selected by Simple Random Sampling for the present study. The selected three districts are Rajshahi, Rangpur and Dinajpur. To fulfill the objectives of the present study Trend Analysis and Factor Analysis have been anticipated. Suitability of commonly used trend models like Linear, Compound and Quadratics trend models for the selected districts were checked by Mann-Kendall and Spearman non parametric statistical tests and parameters of these models were estimated by OLS technique. The DW statistics are obtained by OLS technique shows the evidence of autocorrelation in the data sets. To overcome this problem we have used Cochrane­Orcutt technique to estimate of parameter of the trend models. The Cochrane-Orcutt technique minimizes the autocorrelation problem. The JB test shows the normality assumption of errors for all the models. Although the R2 and adjusted R2 have increased for all the models it is remarkable of about 17%-18% increasing of these values for Rajshahi districts in both the Linear and Compound models. The HYV Boro productions of the selected districts have been forecasted up to year 2021 for three trend models using the data from 1971 to 2003 by Cochrane-Orcutt technique and the results are given in detailed in Chapter Three. It is seen from the result that the Compound Trend model performs better maintaining the growth rate 1.009 for Rajshahi, 1.012 for Rangpur, 1.008 for Dinapur and its forecasting performance is the best among the trend models. Production of HYV Boro rice may depend on several climatic and non climatic variables like, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud coverage, CO2 emission, fertilizer use and tractor use. In this study, we are also interested to identify the factors whose impacts are influential to the HYV Boro production of the selected districts of northern region of Bangladesh. Factor analysis, a data reduction technique have been used to identify the impact such variables on HYV Boro rice production in northern region of Bangladesh. Our analysis has identified five influential factors for the HYV Boro rice production for each of the districts. Therefore it is shown that the selected factors account for 82.33% of the total variance for Rajshahi district, 75. 71 % of the total variance for Rangpur district and 71.57% of the total variance for Dinajpur districts. The findings of this study convey a message to the agriculturist, concerned authorities and policy makers that keep watching of climatic factors and proper handling of other relevant factors in Boro rice production of northern region that would be significant in food supplying in this region and enhance the food security of Bangladesh.